摘要
碳排放是引起气候变化的重要原因.针对影响碳排放的因素和预测问题,以2007-2016年广西碳排放10年的数据为样本,提出了利用信息熵与灰色系统理论分析能源结构、能源强度、人口数量及碳排放之间的相关性和相关程度,建立了多因素预测模型对碳排放量进行了预测.通过评价指标P=0.98和C=0.14,表明了预测模型具有良好的精度.
Carbon emission is a significant cause of climate change.Aiming to the influence factors and forecastingproblem of carbon emission,taking the 10-year data of carbon emission in Guangxi from 2007 to 2016 as the sample,information entropy and grey system are used to analysis correlation and relevant degree among energy structure,energyintensity,population,and carbon emission.A multi-factors prediction model to forecast carbon emission is established.The evaluation indices(P=0.98 and C=0.14)show that the model has good accuracy.
作者
阳建中
陈慧蓉
刘志先
赵荣阳
YANG Jianzhong;CHEN Huirong;LIU Zhixian;ZHAO Rongyang(College of Electronic and Information Engineer,Beibu Gulf University,Qinzhou 535011,China;College of Resources and Environment,Beibu Gulf University,Qinzhou 535011,China)
出处
《中南民族大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
北大核心
2022年第1期123-128,共6页
Journal of South-Central University for Nationalities：Natural Science Edition
基金
广西自然科学基金资助项目(2020GXNSFAA297233)
广西高校中青年教师基础能力提升项目(2020KY10018,2020KY10023)。
关键词
碳排放量
信息熵
灰色系统
多因素预测模型
carbon emission
information entropy
grey system
multi-factors forecasting model
