基于生态足迹-Tapio脱钩模型的娄底市区域经济可持续性研究

Regional Economic Sustainability Research of Loudi Based on Ecological Footprint-Tapio Decoupling Model

传统生态足迹理论的缺陷在于固有的静态性和研究对象仅为生态系统的单一性,而深入进行Tapio脱钩分析的优势恰恰在于能动态反应变量的时间序列特征和有效评定双系统之间的耦合程度。因此在传统生态足迹理论的基础上,进一步研究了经济发展与生态压力之间的脱钩关系,以有效克服其缺陷并对区域可持续性做出综合评判。结果表明:1)娄底市人均生态足迹随时间呈倒"U"型分布,其中能源足迹的贡献率最大。2)长期面临严重的生态赤字,处于相对的不可持续状态。3)脱钩关系由"扩张性负脱钩"到"弱脱钩"到"强脱钩",表明系统间的耦合程度越来越低,但仍面临较大的生态压力。根据上述结论,提出进一步优化产业结构等四点对策建议。

The shortcomings of traditional ecological footprint theory are the inherent static and the unicity of the only object,ecosystem,while the advantages of the further Tapio decoupling analysis are precisely as follows:(1)Responding the time series characteristics of variables dynamically;(2)Effectively evaluating the degree of coupling between the two systems.Therefore,based on the traditional ecological footprint theory,this paper will further study the decoupling relationship between ecological pressure and economic development to effectively overcome its shortcomings and make a comprehensive assessment of regional sustainability.The results show:(1)The city’s per capita ecological footprint presents an inverted U-shaped distribution over time,and the energy footprint contributes the most.(2)It has been facing severe ecological deficits for a long time and is in a relatively unsustainable state.(3)The decoupling relationship has gone through a process from“expansion negative decoupling”to“weak decoupling”to“strong decoupling”,indicating that the correlation between the systems has been getting lower and lower,but it still faces great ecological pressure.Based on the above conclusions,four countermeasures and suggestions are put forward,such as further optimizing the industrial structure.