农村公路风险评估模型修正方法

Modification Method of Risk Evaluation Model of Rural Roads

针对农村公路风险评估模型的可靠性问题,提出一种基于证据理论、层次分析法、Bayesian平均模型的风险评估修正方法。首先从知识强度和模型逼真度两个方面建立模型可信度评估指标体系,基于证据理论和层次分析法(DST-AHP)构建模型可信度评估方法,再基于Bayesian平均模型构建融合可信度的风险评估修正方法,最后通过案例分析验证了该修正方法的适用性和可靠性。

Aiming at the reliability problems of previous rural roads risk evaluation models,the paper proposed a risk evaluation modification method based on the evidence theory,analytic hierarchy process and Bayesian average model.Firstly,it established the model reliability evaluation index system from the two aspects which were knowledge intensity and model fidelity.Then,it constructed the model reliability evaluation method based on the DST-AHP,and built the reliability-targeted risk evaluation modification method based on the Bayesian average model.Finally,the applicability and reliability of the modified method were verified through a case analysis.