核电站备件库存金额预测方法

Prediction of Spare Parts Inventory Value of Nuclear Power Plant

设计了一种对入库金额和领用金额进行预测的方法,基于核电站的历史入库数据、维修领用数据,通过入库金额和领用金额对库存金额进行预测,并以某核电站为例进行仿真验证,当预测时长为12个月时,入库金额预测的平均相对误差为7.77%,领用金额预测的平均相对误差为7.83%,库存金额预测的平均相对误差为3.59%,基本满足核电备件管理中对库存金额预测精度的要求。

In this paper,we designed a method to predict the storage amount and requisition amount of nuclear power plants.Based on the historical storage data and maintenance requisition data of a nuclear power plant,we predicted the inventory value of the plant by calculating its storage amount and requisition amount.Next,we had a numerical simulation analysis and found that with the prediction time set to 12 months,the average relative error of the storage amount predicted was 7.77%,the average relative error of the requisition amount predicted was 7.83%,and the average relative error of the inventory value was 3.59%,which basically meets the accuracy requirements for the inventory value forecasting in the spare parts management of nuclear power plants.