重庆市物流业发展与经济增长的互动关系研究

Research on the Interactive Relationship between Logistics Industry Development and Economic Growth in Chongqing

根据主成分分析法、因果关系检验等计量方法,使用1985—2018年重庆市物流业发展水平相关数据和GDP的年度数据,以2002年为界,对重庆市前后两阶段的物流业发展与经济增长的相互关系进行实证分析,结果表明:(1)重庆市的经济增长与物流业发展在两个时间段的发展速度存在明显差异;(2)经济增长对于物流业发展总体上存在显著的单向Granger因果关系,但这种单向Granger因果关系在第一阶段不显著,第二阶段在1%水平下显著;(3)在与全国数据的对比中,全国的物流业发展对于经济增长存在显著的单向Granger因果关系;在与四川省、湖北省的对比中,四川省的物流业发展对于经济增长也存在显著的单向Granger因果关系,而湖北省则存在物流业发展与经济增长双向的因果关系。通过对比研究发现,重庆市的经济增长明显超越了物流业发展的阶段,这也许与重庆市1997年成为直辖市对经济增长产生极大推动效应有关。

According to the measurement methods such as principal component analysis and causality test,using the relevant data of the development level of logistics industry and the annual data of GDP in Chongqing from 1985 to 2018,and taking 2002 as the boundary,an empirical analysis was made on the relationship between the development of logistics industry and economic growth in the two periods before 2002 and after 2002 in Chongqing.The re sults show that:there are obvious differences in the development speed of economic growth and logistics industry in Chongqing;on the whole,there is a significant one-way Granger causality between economic growth and the development of logistics industry,but this one-way Granger causality is not significant in the first stage and significant at the 1%level in the second stage;in comparison with the national data,there is a significant one-way Granger causality between the development of national logistics industry and economic growth;in comparison with Sichuan province and Hubei province,the development of logistics industry in Sichuan province also has a significant one-way Granger causality for economic growth,while there is a two-way causality between logistics industry development and economic growth in Hubei province.It is found that the economic growth of Chongqing has obviously exceeded the development stage of logistics industry,which may be related to the great promoting effect of Chongqing becoming a municipality directly under the central government in 1997.