轨道交通产业关联效应的测度分析——以四川省为例

Empirical analysis on the correlation effect of rail transit industry:a case study of Sichuan Province

轨道交通产业体系复杂,与众多产业联动发展。轨道交通产业的发展能极大促进其他产业发展及经济增长。为定量分析轨道交通产业与其他产业的关联互动,从产业关联角度出发,基于投入产出表,构建四川省轨道交通产业6部门与45部门的投入产出表,分析并计算轨道交通产业的关联效应、波及效应以及产业结构静态分解。结果显示:轨道交通产业的关联产业众多,并不集中于某几个产业;轨道交通产业的影响力与感应度均大于1,且影响力大于感应度;反馈效应不明显,溢出效应明显大于乘数效应与反馈效应,占62.82%,溢出效应I占总溢出效应的93.8%。研究证明轨道交通产业的自我调节能力较强、对其他产业的发展影响大,也是对国民经济增长拉动较明显的先导性产业,应优先发展轨道交通产业。

The industrial system of rail transit is complex and linked to many industries.Its development greatly promotes the development of other industries and economic growth.In order to quantitatively analyze the interaction between rail transit industry and other industries,based on the input-output table,the input-output tables of 6 and 45 sectors are constructed for rail transit industry in Sichuan Province.This paper analyzes and calculates the correlation effect,ripple effect and static decomposition of industrial structure of rail transit industry.The result shows that there are large number of industries linked to rail transit industry,which are not concentrated in some industries.The influence and sensibility of rail transit industry are greater than 1,and the influence is greater than the sensibility.Feedback effects are not obvious,so spillover effects is significantly greater than multiplier effects and feedback effects,accounting for 62.82%,and spillover effects I accounts for 93.8%of the total spillover effects.It proves that the rail transit industry is a leading industry with strong self-regulation ability,which makes great influence on the development of other industries and obvious boosts the growth of national economy,thus a priority should keen given to its development.