上海沿海风暴潮历史特征分析

Historical characteristics of the storm surges along Shanghai coast

基于中国气象局台风最佳路径数据集和欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)风场再分析资料,遴选出1979-2019年影响上海的241场历史台风事件。采用ADCIRC风暴潮模型对241场历史台风所引起的风暴潮过程进行了模拟,计算得到了上海沿海历史风暴增水数据集,由此对上海沿海代表站点的历史风暴增水进行了特征分析。结果表明,崇西闸、堡镇、吴淞口、高桥、芦潮港、金山嘴、洋山港站和绿华山等8个代表站历史最大增水在1.38~2.58 m之间,各站最大增水小于1 m的累积频率均超过0.9。尽管各站最大增水时间序列未通过Mann-Kendall趋势性检验,但吴淞口站的年最高水位却呈现出显著的增加趋势,这可能与上游径流、天文潮、风暴潮和海平面变化等因素的综合影响有关。

241 typhoon events affecting Shanghai from 1979 to 2019 were filtered from the China Meteorological Administration tropical cyclone database and the reanalysis data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF).The storm surge model of the East China Sea was constructed based on the ADCIRC hydrodynamic model and was used to simulate the storm surges driven by the 241 typhoon events along Shanghai coast.The historical characteristics of storm surge were then analyzed based on the modelling data.The results show that the historical maximum storm surges of the 8 hydrometric stations(Chongxizha,Baozhen,Wusongkou,Gaoqiao,Luchaogang,Jinshanzui,Yangshangang,and Lühuashan)near Shanghai coast are in a range of 1.38-2.58 m.The cumulative frequency of the peak storm surge values no more than 1.0 m of all the eight stations are larger than 0.9.The Mann-Kendall trend test results show that there is no significant increase trend of the peak storm surge near Shanghai coast.However,the annual peak water levels of Wusongkou Station present a significant increasing trend,which is potentially due to the comprehensive influence of upstream river discharge,astronomic tides,storm surge,and sea level rise.