基于“牛鞭效应”的供应链各方合作可行性的博弈分析

Analysis of the feasibility of cooperation between all parties in the supply chain based on“bullwhip effect”using the game theory

现代经济能够快速发展的一个重要因素是供应链快速供货,但由于存在“牛鞭效应”,最上游的生产商会获得偏差极大的订货信息。本文通过实例展示了上述“牛鞭效应”传递的过程,同时对“牛鞭效应”扰动情况下供应链各节点的收益情况进行了计算,从博弈论的角度对供应链中各节点企业所采取的策略进行两两对比分析,证明了在供应链中各方采取合作策略的可行性,并提出了几点弱化“牛鞭效应”的建议。

An important factor for the rapid development of modern economy is the rapid supply of goods in the supply chain.However,the most upstream manufacturers will get the order information with great deviation due to the“bullwhip effect”.This paper deduced the process of the“bullwhip effect”transmission through examples and calculated the income of each node in the supply chain under the disturbance of the“bullwhip effect”dynamically.Compared and analyzed the strategies adopted by each node enterprise in the supply chain from the perspective of the game theory and proved the feasibility of adopting the cooperation strategy by all parties in the supply chain.Some suggestions on weakening bullwhip effect were put forward.