产业多样性对区域经济韧性的影响——基于后金融危机时代长三角城市群的实证研究

The Impact of Industrial Diversity on Regional Economic Resilience-An Empirical Study Based on Cities of Yangtze River Delta in the Post Financial Crisis Era

2020年初,新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的暴发对全球经济都造成了非常大的影响,在该背景之下研究各个城市抗外部冲击的能力即经济韧性变得非常重要。基于数据的可获得性,本文以2008年金融危机作为外部冲击,以长三角城市群为研究对象,运用经济韧性这一指标度量长三角地区各个城市对于冲击的反应程度,并试图从产业结构多样性的角度来解释长三角地区各个城市在经济韧性方面的差异。通过实证结果发现:第一,长三角城市群经济韧性在空间上存在明显分异,并且在冲击前后韧性变化明显;第二,产业多样性能使一个城市在面对危机时分散冲击;第三,相关多样性与非相关多样性对经济韧性的影响是趋异的,非相关多样性能够分散并降低外部冲击对于经济的影响,而相关多样性则会加剧区域面对冲击的敏感性,降低韧性。

At the beginning of 2020,the outbreak of the COVID-19 had a very large impact on the global economy.Under this background,it is very important to study the ability of each city to resist external shocks,that is,economic resilience.Based on the availability of data,this paper takes the 2008 financial crisis as an external shock and takes cities of Yangtze River Delta as the research object.It uses economic resilience as an indicator to measure the degree of response of cities in the Yangtze River Delta to the shock,to explain the differences in the economic resilience of cities in the Yangtze River Delta.The empirical results found that:First,the economic resilience of the cities in the Yangtze River Delta is clearly differentiated in space and the resilience changes significantly before and after the shock;second,industrial diversity can enable a city to disperse the impact in the face of a crisis;third,related the impact of diversity and unrelated diversity on economic resilience is divergent.Unrelated diversity can disperse and reduce the impact of external shocks on the economy,while related diversification will increase the sensitivity of the region to shocks and reduce resilience.