经济周期、国家形象与贸易摩擦——基于国际贸易面板数据的实证研究

Economic Cycle,National Image and Trade Friction——An Empirical Study Based on International Trade Panel Data

使用2006—2014年41个国家对华贸易摩擦数据,研究经济周期与国家形象对贸易摩擦的影响,研究结果发现:贸易摩擦具有“逆周期”特征,经济下行趋势加剧贸易摩擦;积极(或消极)国家形象对贸易摩擦具有负向(或正向)作用,相对国家形象也有相似结论;经济周期与积极(或消极)国家形象的乘积项对贸易摩擦有负向(或正向)影响,即经济周期会扩大积极(或消极)国家形象对贸易摩擦产生的负向(或正向)作用;贸易摩擦与体现经济周期“非对称性”的经济增长动力差异以及意识形态差异均呈正相关关系。加快制造业转型升级、培育出口产品竞争优势、扩大内需以及展现负责任大国担当是中国应对贸易摩擦的不二选择。

The trade friction data of 41 countries against China from 2006 to 2014 are used to study the impact of economic cycle and national image on trade frictions.The results show that trade frictions have the characteristics of"counter-cycle",and the economic downward trend aggravates trade frictions.Positive(or negative)national image has a negative(or positive)effect on trade friction,and there are similar conclusions relative to national image.The product of the economic cycle and the positive(or negative)country image has a negative(or positive)impact on trade friction,that is,the economic cycle will expand the negative(or positive)effect of the positive(or negative)country image on trade frictions.There is a positive correlation between trade friction and the differences in economic growth motivation and ideology that reflect the"asymmetry"of the economic cycle.To speed up the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry,cultivate the competitive advantage of export products,expand domestic demand and demonstrate the responsibility of a responsible power is the only choice for China to deal with trade frictions.