“一带一路”债务可持续的软法路径

Debt Sustainability under the Belt and Road:A Soft Law Perspective

债务可持续是推动"一带一路"高质量发展的关键议题之一,其实质是保障"一带一路"借款国融资需求和还款能力间的平衡。2017年起渲染至今的"债务陷阱"问题,与新冠肺炎疫情期间达成的一系列G20公共债务倡议,都说明这个议题的现实重要性。国际社会应对公共债务可持续问题的传统思路是软法规制,包括联合国贸易和发展会议(UNCTAD)制定的《负责任的主权借贷原则》、世界银行和国际货币基金组织(IMF)共同制定的《债务可持续框架》及巴黎俱乐部制定的债务重组基本原则,中国倡议的《"一带一路"债务可持续分析框架》是这一领域的最新成果。软法路径符合国际社会规制公共债务的传统,也是中国致力于"一带一路"债务可持续的可行选择。建议推动《"一带一路"债务可持续分析框架》多边化,推广亚洲基础设施投资银行分析债务的做法,适时启动加入巴黎俱乐部谈判工作,建立应对债务危机的全球援助机制,创造政府和社会资本合作(PPP)最佳国际实践。

Debt sustainability is a top priority for making a high-quality Belt and Road Initiative(BRI).It aims to satisfy the borrowing needs of the BRI partners while ensuring that the loans are repayable,balancing and serving all the interests of the borrowers,the lenders,other creditors and various stakeholders.The issue of debt sustainability is of practical importance,against the rhetoric of“debt-trap diplomacy”imposed upon the BRI,and the G20 debt suspension initiative and common framework in the context of the pandemic COVID-19 in particular.The international community has made various campaigns of soft-law making to address the issue.These include Principles on Promoting Responsible Sovereign Lending and Borrowing by United Nations Conference on Trade and Development,Debt Sustainability Framework by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund,and principles relating to debt rescheduling and cancelling upheld by the Paris Club.Debt Sustainability Framework for Participating Countries of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI-DSF),initiated by China,marks the latest effort in this regard,combining best international practice and the particular situations of BRI borrowing partners.Still more work needs to be done for debt sustainability:First,the China-proposed BRI-DSF should be multilateralised;Second,Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank needs to be drawn upon in terms of debt sustainability analysis in BRI project documents;Third,China should begin the negotiation of joining the Paris Club;Fourth,a Global Stability Fund for purposes of bailouts should be set up;And fifth,the modus operandi of public-private partnership should continuously be promoted in BRI projects.