新一轮能源危机潜在风险与防范策略研究

Research on Potential Risks and Prevention Strategies of the New Round of Energy Crisis

新冠疫情爆发以来,全球主要能源价格屡创新高,推动了一系列大宗商品价格的上涨,带来了全球潜在通胀和滞涨风险。本文认为,新一轮能源危机的成因复杂,既有传统能源市场的供需与价格炒作因素,也有新能源技术不成熟和系统性气候变化以及国家间的博弈因素等。这些影响因素预期在短期内难以消除,造成本轮能源危机或将在今后2年-3年持续存在。基于这些影响因素分析,本文提出了如何有效防范新一轮能源危机的一揽子政策建议。

Since the outbreak of COVID-19,major energy prices around the world have hit new highs and driven up the prices of a series of commodities,leading to a new round of global inflation risks.This study believes that the causes of the new round of energy crisis are complex,including supply and demand factors and price speculation factors in the traditional energy market,immature new energy technologies,systematic climate change and game factors among countries.These factors are expected to be difficult to eliminate in the short term,resulting in the current round of energy crisis or will continue to exist in the next 2-3 years.Based on the analysis of these influencing factors,a package of policy suggestions on how to effectively prevent a new round of energy crisis are put forward.