安徽工业经济增长与能源碳排放脱钩研究

Research on Decoupling between Industrial Economic Growth and Energy Carbon Emission in Anhui Province

以2005—2018年安徽省工业行业为研究对象,基于LMDI方法将工业经济增长与能源碳排放脱钩的内在驱动分解为能源结构、能源效率、经济产出、行业结构、人口效应五个因素。研究结果表明:(1)安徽省工业行业碳排放量态势前期巨幅上升,后期逐步趋向平缓;(2)能源效率是促进安徽省工业行业碳排放脱钩的主要因素,经济产出是抑制碳排放脱钩的首要原因,其次是人口效应因素,能源结构对碳排放脱钩抑制效果最弱;(3)在整个研究期间,安徽省工业经济增长与碳排放存脱钩效应经历由长期的弱脱钩转变为短暂强脱钩,最终进入弱负脱钩3个阶段。根据上述研究结论对安徽省绿色经济发展提出相关建议。

Targeted at industries from 2005-2018 and based on the LMDI method, the internal driving factors of industrial economic growth and energy carbon emission decoupling were decomposed into five factors: energy structure, energy efficiency, economic output, industry structure, and industrial population size. The results show that:(1) The trend of industrial carbon emissions in Anhui Province increased dramatically in the early stage, and gradually tended to be flat in the later stage;(2) Energy efficiency is the main factor to promote the decoupling of industrial carbon emissions in Anhui Province. Economic efficiency is the primary reason to restrain the decoupling of carbon emissions, followed by population size. Energy structure has the weakest inhibiting effect on the decoupling of carbon emissions.(3) During the whole research period, the decoupling effect of industrial economic growth and carbon emission storage in Anhui Province experienced three stages, from long-term weak decoupling to short strong decoupling, and then to the final weak negative decoupling. And according to the above research conclusions, suggestions are put forward about the development of green economy in Anhui Province.