经济政策不确定性对债券违约的影响

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Bond Default

本文以2014~2019年中国的信用债为样本,研究经济政策不确定性对债券违约的影响。研究发现,经济政策不确定性越高,信用债违约的可能性越大,并且上述效应在风险承担能力弱的发行主体中以及外部融资市场不发达时更为显著。进一步研究发现,经济政策不确定性高时,公司外部融资能力和经营业绩均显著下降,从而债券违约的可能性增加。本文从宏观外部环境的角度出发,发现经济政策不确定性是影响债券违约的重要因素,这有助于投资者理解近年来愈发频繁的债券违约现象。

Based on China's credit bonds from 2014 to 2019,this paper studies the impact of economic policy uncertainty on credit bond default.This study shows that economic policy uncertainty has a positive effect on bond default;and this effect is more pronounced among firms with lower risk tolerance and firms located in areas with less developed external financing market.Further analyses show that when the economic policy uncertainty increases,the financing ability and operating performance of the firms decrease significantly,and hence the possibility of bond default increases.This paper finds that economic policy uncertainty is an important factor affecting credit bond default,which helps investors understand the increasing occurrence of bond default in recent years.