基于概率盒理论的负荷不确定性潮流计算

Probability box theory based power flow calculation with load uncertainty

传统的确定性潮流计算只能获取在确定参数下电力系统的运行情况,但是在实际工作中这些影响系统运行的参数(如负荷)具有波动性。为了分析这些参数的波动性对系统运行带来的影响,提出了一种基于概率盒理论的负荷不确定性潮流计算。将概率盒理论应用于潮流计算当中,建立了一种基于概率盒的概率区间潮流模型并对其进行求解。以标准IEEE 30测试系统为例,首先分析负荷的分布特性,获得负荷的漂移区间并建立其概率盒模型;然后将负荷的概率盒等信度离散化并代入潮流方程中获得基于概率盒的潮流模型;最后使用牛顿法对该模型进行求解,并将潮流计算结果与蒙特卡洛方法进行对比分析。实验结果表明该方法有效可行,并且有更高的准确性。

The traditional deterministic power flow calculation can obtain the operation status of power system only on condition of the fixed parameters. However,these parameters(such as load)which affect the system operation are fluctuant in practice. In view of this,a probability box theory based load flow calculation with load uncertainty is proposed to analyze the influence of the parameter fluctuation on the system operation. The probability box theory is applied to the power flow calculation. A probability interval power flow model based on probability box theory is established and solved. The standard IEEE 30 test system is taken as an example. The distribution characteristics of the load are analyzed to obtain its drift interval and establish its probability box model. The credibility of the probability box of load is discretized and substituted into the power flow equation to obtain the power flow model based on probability box theory. The Newton ′ s method is used to solve the model.The results of power flow calculation was compared with that of the Monte Carlo method. The experimental results show that the proposed method is effective and feasible,and has higher accuracy.