基于灰色预测模型的昆仑山区土地利用时空变化研究 ——以和田地区为例

Research on Spatio-temporal Changes of Land Use in Kunlun Mountains Based on GM Model—Taking Hotan Area as an Example

运用2000、2005、2010和2015年LUCC土地利用数据,采用土地利用动态度模型及土地利用转移矩阵,对处于昆仑山区的新疆和田地区16年来的土地利用变化情况进行分析,并运用灰色预测模型对未来2025、2030年和田地区土地利用类型进行预测。结果表明,近16年来和田地区为代表的昆仑山区土地利用处于快速变化时期。土地利用类型变化速度与幅度反映2000—2015年和田地区各类土地利用变化中耕地和建设用地面积增长较明显,分别增加了985、21 km^(2),其他各类用地面积都有不同程度的减少,减少最多的是草地,减少面积555 km^(2),其次是未利用地,减少面积398 km^(2)。从土地利用动态度来看,2000—2015年耕地和建设用地单一动态度较大,其他地类单一动态度较小,表明在研究期间耕地和建设用地面积增长较快,其他地类面积都有不同程度减少。从土地利用转移方面来看,土地利用类型转移主要发生在2000—2005和2010—2015年,转移地类主要是发生在草地—耕地、未利用地—耕地和耕地—建设用地。土地利用转移空间变化主要表现在沿河流纵向分布,发生在人类聚居的绿洲区域及城市周边。利用灰色预测模型对2025和2030年和田地区土地利用类型进行预测,预测精度良好,表明和田地区2025和2030年耕地和建设用地面积呈不断增加,其他地类都有不同程度减少。

Based on the LUCC land use data of 2000,2005,2010 and 2015,the land use dynamics model and the land use transfer matrix were used to analyze the land use changes in the Hotan area of Xinjiang in the Kunlun Mountains for 16 years,and the gray prediction model was used to predict the land use types in Hotan area in the future 2025 and 2030.The results showed that in the past 16 years,land use in the Kunlun Mountains represented by the Hotan area had been in a period of rapid change.The change rate and extent of land use types reflected that the area of arable land and construction land had increased significantly during the various land use changes in Hotan from 2000 to 2015,increasing by 985 and 21 km^(2),respectively.The area of other types of land had decreased to varying degrees.The largest decrease was grassland,with a reduction of 555 km^(2),followed by unused land,with a reduction of 398 km^(2).From the perspective of land use dynamics,the single dynamics of cultivated land and construction land from 2000 to 2015 were relatively large,while the single dynamics of other land types were relatively small,which indicated that the area of cultivated land and construction land increased rapidly during the study period,and the area of other land types decreased to varying degrees.From the perspective of land use transfer,the transfer of land use types mainly occurred in 2000-2005 and 2010-2015,and the transferred land types mainly occurred in grassland-cultivated land,unused land-cultivated land and cultivated land-construction land.The spatial changes of land use transfer were mainly manifested in longitudinal distribution along rivers,occurring in oasis areas where humans live and around cities.The gray prediction model is used to predict the land use types of Hotan in 2025 and 2030,and the prediction accuracy is good.The results show that the area of arable land and construction land in Hotan will continue to increase in 2025 and 2030,and other land types will decrease to varying degrees.