基于区间型数据计量的我国粮食产量研究

Research on China’s Grain Output Based on Interval Data Measurement

采用4种区间型数据计量建模方法,综合分析我国8个省份城市1993—2018年气候变化和农业生产投入要素对粮食产量影响。采用5个评价指标衡量4种建模方法的预测精度,给出4种方法的回归结果并进行比较分析,应用最优回归方法对我国粮食产量变化进行预测。研究结果表明:我国粮食产量存在地域性差异,部分省份2009以年前单位面积粮食产量变化幅度较大,但近10年我国8大产粮省份的单位面积粮食产量趋于稳定。同时,气候变化和农业生产投入要素均对我国粮食产量起显著作用。最后,本文对提高粮食产量给出相应政策建议。

Four modeling methods of interval data are used to explore the comprehensive impact of climate change and agricultural production input factors on China’s grain yield from 1993 to 2018.In addition,five evaluation indexes are used to measure the prediction accuracy of methods and the regression results are given and compared.The optimal regression method is applied to predict the change of grain yield in China.The results show that there are regional differences in grain yield in China,and the grain yield per unit area in some provinces changed greatly before 2009.But the grain yield per unit area of China’s eight provinces has tended to stable in the past tent years.Furthermore,climate change and agricultural production input factors have statistical significance in China’s grain yield.Finally,some suggestions are given to improve grain yield.