气候系统翻转点的早期预警方法研究

Research on early warning method of tipping point of the climate system

针对气候系统的非线性特征导致预测/预警气候突变困难的问题,本文从气候系统的长程相关性出发,利用零维气候模型和两个折叠模型,研究了在一个动力系统缓慢趋近其临界翻转点的过程中,系统的长程相关是否有某种一般性变化规律。结果显示,3个不同分岔模型在趋近其自身临界翻转点的过程中,表征系统长程相关性的Hurst指数均呈持续增大趋势(显著性水平α=0.05),表明监测和检测气候系统长程相关性的变化可为气候系统翻转点的预警提供有利信息。

Aiming at the problem that the nonlinear characteristics of climate system make it difficult to predict/early warn the abrupt change of climate, this paper starts from the long-range correlation of climate system, and uses the zero dimensional climate model and two folding models to study whether the long-range correlation of a dynamic system has some general change law when it slowly approaches its critical turning point. Results show that the Hurst index, which represents the long-range correlation of the three bifurcation models, increases continuously(significance level α=0.05) when they approach their critical tipping points, which indicates that monitoring and detecting the change of the long-range correlation of the climate system can provide useful information for the early warning of the tipping points of the climate system.