基于改进逆推算法的台风气象服务综合效益评估研究

Research on comprehensive benefit assessment of typhoon meteorological services based on improved inverse algorithm

为了更加科学地定量化评估台风气象服务综合效益,运用改进的逆推算法,结合层次分析法,综合考虑台风的气象服务水平、政府防灾减灾决策及组织能力、行业防台减灾能力、公众防台减灾自救互救能力、防灾减灾成本和不可避免损失等因子,建立了台风气象服务效益定量化评估模型。以2018年严重影响江苏的18号台风"温比亚"为例,设计了调查问卷,对评估模型各因子进行了调查及评估计算,得到该台风气象服务综合效益值。结果表明:由于台风气象服务,取得综合效益14.48亿元,有效避免了40.9%的经济损失;评估方法较以往研究考虑因子更为全面,同时具有可操作性较强、符合气象服务实际情况等特点,可进行业务化推广;同时评估结果定量化评价了政府在防灾减灾中的决策作用和决策的宏观效果、行业及公众的防灾减灾能力等,可为政府制定防灾减灾策略、从而进一步提升全社会防台减灾能力提供参考依据。

In order to evaluate comprehensive benefits of typhoon meteorological service more quantitatively and scientifically, a quantitative assessing model for the comprehensive benefits of typhoon meteorological service was established by improving inverse algorithm, employing analytic hierarchy process, and comprehensively considering factors including typhoon meteorological service’s level, government decision-making and organizational capabilities for disaster prevention and mitigation, industry disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities, public disaster prevention, mitigation, self-rescue and mutual-rescue capabilities, disaster prevention and mitigation costs, and inevitable losses. Taking the 18 Typhoon “Rumbia” affecting Jiangsu seriously in 2018 as an example, a questionnaire was designed to investigate, evaluate and calculate each factor of the assessing model to obtain the comprehensive benefits of typhoon meteorological service. Results show that comprehensive benefits of 1.448 billion yuan were achieved and 40.9% of economic losses were effectively avoided due to typhoon meteorological service. The assessing method takes more factors into consideration comprehensively than previous studies and has the characteristics of strong operability and conformity with the actual conditions of meteorological services, which can be promoted for commercialization. Moreover, the assessing results quantitatively evaluates the government’s decision-making role and the macro-effects in disaster prevention and mitigation, and the disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities of the industry and the public. It can design disaster prevention and mitigation strategies for the government, thereby providing references to further improve the whole society’s disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities.