河南省2010-2020年报告乙型肝炎的空间聚集性

Spatial clustering of hepatitis B reported in 2010-2020 in Henan province

目的分析河南省乙型肝炎(乙肝)报告发病率的空间聚集性。方法从全国传染病报告系统获取河南省2010-2020年乙肝报告发病率,利用GeoDa软件和SaTScan软件分析县区级聚集性区域。结果河南省乙肝报告发病率从2010年的144.88/10万下降到2020年的52.45/10万(趋势χ^(2)=333.11,P<0.01)。全局空间自相关分析显示各年Moran’s I值在0.195-0.530之间;局部空间自相关发现47个高-高聚集区域;SaTScan空间扫描发现3个空间聚集区域,其中最大聚集区域为郑州市西北部24个县区(LLR=17930.83,RR=1.75,P<0.001);SaTScan时空扫描发现1个时空聚集区域,发生在2010-2012年郑州市周围县区。结论河南省2010-2020年乙肝报告发病率呈现一定的空间聚集性,应重点加强河南省北部和东部部分县区乙肝防控。

Objective To analyze spatial clustering of hepatitis B reported in 2010-2020 in Henan province.Methods We obtained data on the incidence of hepatitis B during 2010-2020 in Henan from the National Notifiable Disease Reporting System to determine spatial clustering at the county level using the GeoDa and SaTScan software.Results The reported incidence per 100 000 population of hepatitis B in Henan decreased from 144.88 in 2010 to 52.45 in 2020(trend χ^(2)=333.11, P<0.01). Global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed Moran’s I values of 0.195-0.530 by year. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis identified 47 high-high clustering areas. Spatial scanning analysis with SaTScan identified three spatial clusters and one temporal-spatial cluster, in which a maximum spatial cluster involved 24 counties located in the northwest of Zhengzhou(LLR=17 930.83, RR=1.75, P<0.001). Temporal-spatial scanning analysis with SaTScan identified one temporal-spatial cluster during 2010-2012 in countries/districts around Zhengzhou.Conclusions Hepatitis B clustered spatially during 2010-2020 in some areas of Henan. We should strengthen hepatitis B prevention and control in counties/districts of northern and eastern Henan.