全球价值链对中国居民消费率的影响研究

The Impact of Global Value Chain on the Consumption Rate of China’s Household

近年来随着全球价值链的兴起,中国的居民消费率不断下降。利用中国省级面板数据研究全球价值链对中国居民消费率的影响,结果表明:全球价值链对中国的居民消费率会产生显著的抑制作用。无论是从进口渠道还是出口渠道,全球价值链都会显著地抑制中国的居民消费率。将居民消费率细分为城镇居民消费率和农村居民消费率后,全球价值链更显著降低的是中国农村的居民消费率。在全球价值链的背景下,促进能消费、敢消费和愿消费,提高居民消费率,关系到中国能否形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局。

In recent years,with the rise of global value chain,China’s household consumption rate has been declining.This paper uses China’s provincial panel data to study the impact of global value chain on the consumption rate of China’s household.The results show that:Global value chains have a significant inhibitory effect on the consumption rate of China’s household.Whether it is from import channel or export channel,global value chain will significantly suppress China’s household consumption rate.After subdividing the household consumption rate into urban household consumption rate and rural household consumption rate,the global value chain reduces the consumption rate of rural residents in China even more significantly.In the context of global value chain,promoting capable consumption,daring consumption and willing consumption,and increasing the consumption rate of household are related to whether China can form a new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body and the domestic and international cycles promoting each other.