碳中和导向下丝绸之路经济带沿线省份经济发展与生态环境的协同演进研究

Research on the coordinated evolution of economic development and ecological environment of provinces along the Silk Road Economic Belt under the guidance of carbon neutralization

在碳中和目标背景下,基于系统论研究视阈,运用协同学哈肯模型测度2011~2020年间丝绸之路经济带沿线省份经济发展与生态环境的协同度,并进一步以实现碳中和目标为约束条件,利用Logistic演化方程模型探明二者的协同演进趋势。结果表明:研究期内,丝绸之路经济带沿线9省区经济发展与生态环境的协同度整体偏低,仅新疆和陕西两省区经济发展与生态环境的协同度均值大于0.5,其余7省区经济发展与生态环境的协同度均值均小于0.5;进一步以实现碳中和为目标加入制度环境这一约束条件,利用Logistic方程预判二者的协同演进趋势,研究发现,丝绸之路经济带沿线9省区经济发展与生态环境的协同度显著提高。这表明驱动丝绸之路经济带沿线省份经济发展与生态环境协同的序参量由比较优势转变为制度环境。值得关注的是,序参量的转变反映出“一带一路”倡议与我国新发展格局的同频共振是丝绸之路经济带经济发展与生态环境协同共生的重要引擎。

Under the background of carbon neutralization goal,based on the research horizon of system theory,the synergetic Haken Model is used to measure the synergy between economic development and ecological environment of provinces along the Silk Road Economic Belt from 2011 to 2020,and further take the realization of carbon neutralization goal as the constraint condition,the logistic evolution equation model is used to explore the synergistic evolution trend of the two.The results show that during the study period,the synergy between economic development and ecological environment in 9 provinces along the Silk Road Economic Belt is generally low.The average synergy between economic development and ecological environment in Xinjiang and Shaanxi is greater than 0.5,and the average synergy between economic development and ecological environment in the other 7 provinces is less than 0.5;Further,with the goal of carbon neutralization,adding the constraint of institutional environment,and using logistic equation to predict the collaborative evolution trend of the two,it is found that the synergy between economic development and ecological environment in 9 provinces and regions along the Silk Road Economic Belt has been significantly improved.This shows that the order parameter driving the synergy between economic development and ecological environment of provinces along the Silk Road Economic Belt has changed from comparative advantage to institutional environment.Silk Road Economic Belt one belt,one road initiative,and the new development pattern of China are the important engines for the economic development and ecological environment of the Silk Road Economic Belt.