基于改进型蚁狮混合优化系统模型负荷可调节能力预测

Power Load Adjustable Capacity Forecasting Based on Improved Antlion Hybrid Optimization System Model

为解决传统灰色模型在电力负荷预测应用中存在的问题,文章研究一种电力负荷可调节能力预测模型的性能提升方法。所提方法在传统灰色模型和改进蚁狮优化算法的基础上,结合灰色关联分析方法和动态滚动机制,提出一种改进型蚁狮混合优化灰色预测模型。为验证模型效果,文章采用北京某台区用电负荷可调节量模拟数据建模,并同4种预测模型的结果进行比较,实验结果证明所提模型可有效提升电力负荷可调节能力预测模型的预测性能。

In order to solve the problem of the traditional gray model in the application of power load forecasting,this paper mainly studies a performance improvement method of power load adjustable capacity forecasting model.Based on the traditional grey model and improved antlion optimization algorithm,combined with grey correlation analysis method and dynamic rolling mechanism,an improved ant lion hybrid optimization grey prediction model is proposed.In order to verify the effect of the model,this paper uses the simulation data of power load adjustability in a distribution station area of Beijing,and compares the results with those of four prediction models.The experimental results show that the proposed model can effectively improve the prediction performance of power load adjustability prediction model.