基于WRF模式的一种台风人造涡旋构建方案

A typhoon Bogus vortex scheme constructed on the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model

为了使台风路径的数值预报更加精确,本文对人造(Bogus)涡旋构建方案进行了改进,形成了一种新的Bogus方案。该方案直接采用台风外围的风圈观测信息,并成功地植入到WRF(weather research and forecasting)模式中。本文利用该方案,选取2011年9号台风“梅花”这一典型案例展开讨论,结果表明:1)新构造的台风切向风廓线更加真实地反映了台风风场的实际情况;2)新的Bogus方案对台风中心位置的预报,更有利于对台风路径的预报;3)台风内核风场强度,对其非对称结构起到关键的作用,直接影响对台风路径的预报。

To improve the accuracy of a typhoon track numerical prediction,a new Bogus vortex scheme is pro-posed.In this new Bogus scheme,wind observations are adopted to track the typhoons directly.This Bogus scheme is successfully integrated into the weather research and forecasting model.Using this Bogus scheme,Typhoon Muifa,which occurred on September 9,2011,is selected as a typical case.Firstly,the analysis results show that the typhoon wind field is more exactly reflected by the reconstructed typhoon tangential wind profile.Secondly,the typhoon center location accuracy of the new Bogus scheme is improved by 7.47%compared with the scheme pro-posed by Gao et al;thus,the new Bogus scheme is more conducive for typhoon track forecasting.Thirdly,the ty-phoon kernel wind field plays an important role in distinguishing the asymmetric structure of the typhoon,which affects the prediction of the typhoon tracks directly.