产业链安全风险评估与预警监测体系构建研究

Research on the Construction of the Risk Monitoring and Assess⁃ment and Early Warning System of Industrial Chain Safety

党的十九届五中全会提出,统筹发展和安全,建设更高水平的平安中国。党的十九届六中全会通过的决议再次强调统筹发展和安全。其中,维护产业链安全是统筹发展和安全的必然要求,也是提升产业链现代化水平的必由之路。产业链安全主要体现在产业链具有一定的韧性和可控性,能够抵抗疫情等自然灾害和技术断供等人为打压,其关键在于核心技术不受制于人;还体现在具有一定的完整性,以及较强的产业基础能力和抗风险能力。新发展阶段,面对复杂的国际政治经济环境,基于底线思维构建产业链安全风险评估机制与预警监测体系具有特殊重要性、紧迫性与必要性。为此,需要建立跨部门的产业链供应链安全委员会,通过量化模型进行常态化风险评估和预警,并利用国家战略科技力量,协调整合有关资源,运用国家产业政策和创新政策进行备份、防御和科技公关,进而推动产业布局和结构优化升级以及产业链现代化建设。

The fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee proposed that develop⁃ment and security should be coordinated to build a safer China at a higher level.The resolution adopted at the sixth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee once again emphasized coordinated development and security.Among them,maintaining the safety of the industrial chain is an inevitable requirement of coordinated development and safety,and also the only way to improve the modernization level of the industrial chain.Industrial chain security refers to the overall stability,controllability and risk resistance of a country's major industries in the industri⁃al chain under the conditions of open economy,including the ability to resist external shocks such as natural disasters,public health emergencies and international blockade.The safety of in⁃dustrial chain generally depends on the basic capacity of industry and the modernization level of industrial chain.Specifically,it mainly depends on the following three aspects.First,the core competitiveness of products and technologies in key links of the industrial chain,external depen⁃dence and indigenous innovation ability.Second,the availability of key resources,raw materials and markets in all links of the industrial chain.Third,the substitutability,reserve and backup of key technologies,resources and markets of the industrial chain.The industrial chain security has strategic,dynamic and relative characteristics.Under the new development pattern,facing the complex international political and economic environment,it is of special importance,urgency and necessity to construct the risk assessment mechanism and early warning system for maintain⁃ing the security of industrial chain,which is the realistic need to dynamically monitor the number and type of bottleneck technology in China,an important way to improve the toughness of the in⁃dustrial chain,and also the inevitable requirement of strengthening the"bottom line thinking".Therefore,it is necessary to construct the strategic vision of the industrial chain security risk as⁃sessment and early warning detection system:establish the bottom-line thinking,pay attention to the accumulation of patented technology in the industrial chain;strengthen the leading thinking,and look for"breakout technology"to build industrial chain advantage.The industrial chain secu⁃rity needs dynamic risk assessment by quantitative model,and early warning according to the as⁃sessment structure,to achieve early discovery and response on risks that have occurred or may oc⁃cur in the future,to coordinate related resources by the national strategic science and technology strength,and to use the national industrial policy and innovation policy to backup,defense,and build science and technology public relations.At the same time,it needs to promote the industri⁃al distribution,structural optimization and the modernization of industrial chain.The effective op⁃eration of industrial safety risk assessment and early warning detection system needs to establish the organization mechanism of industrial chain safety assessment and early warning monitoring,improve the operation mechanism of industrial chain safety risk assessment and early warning monitoring,and establish the industrial chain safety management policy and law system.