企业资本金融化与政策有效性

Enterprise Capital Financialization and Policy Effectiveness

随着中国近些年经济增速放缓,企业“脱实向虚“愈发严重,货币财政政策调控难度明显加大。用企业资本结构冲击来刻画企业资本金融化,构建了一个包含企业资本结构变化下货币财政政策冲击对宏观经济波动的新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型,研究了企业资本金融化与货币财政政策有效性二者之间的关系。研究发现:第一,企业资本金融化冲击会使得经济下滑、消费下降、金融资产价格上升,泰勒规则相比货币供给规则更有利于应对资本金融化冲击;第二,负利率、货币供给和财政政策冲击都会增加产出、消费和投资,但随着企业资本金融化加深,他们对产出、消费和投资的有效性逐渐下降,反而资产价格相对上升;第三,资本金融化削弱货币财政政策的有效性机理在于资本金融化影响了经济总供给和总需求的相应减少,从而使得总产出、消费和投资相对下降;第四,通过模型方差分解得出,资本结构冲击能够解释资产价格收益波动的19.48%,另外从长期来看,不管是泰勒规则还是货币供给规则下资本金融化深化都会影响实物有效投资不足,从而影响长期消费,不利于长期经济增长。

With the decline of China’s economic growth in recent years,the difficulty of monetary and fiscal policy regulation is significantly increasing,and what impact will enterprise capital financialization have on the effectiveness of the policy?Describe the enterprise capital financialization with the impact of enterprise capital structure,construct a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model including the impact of monetary and fiscal policy on macroeconomic fluctuations under the change of enterprise capital structure,and study the impact of enterprise capital structure,the relationship between capital financialization and the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy.The results show that:first,the impact of enterprise capital financialization will lead to economic decline,consumption decline and financial asset price rise.Taylor rule is more conducive to deal with the impact of capital financialization than money supply rule.Second,negative interest rates,money supply and fiscal policy shocks will increase output,consumption and investment,but with the deepening of enterprise capital financialization,their effectiveness on output,consumption and investment gradually decreases,but asset prices rise relatively;Third,the mechanism that financial capitalization weakens the effectiveness of monetary and the financial capitalization affects the corresponding reduction of total economic supply and demand,resulting in the relative decline of total output,consumption and investment;Fourth,through the variance decomposition of the model,it is concluded that the impact of capital structure can explain 19.48%of the fluctuation of asset price return.In addition,in the long run,whether under Taylor rule or money supply rule,the deepening of capital financialization will affect the insufficient effective investment in kind,thus affecting long-term consumption and not conducive to long-term economic growth.Based on the perspective of macro theory,systematically make an in-depth study on the important Chinese economic characteristics of enterprise capital financialization,and it is found that,enterprise capital financialization has a short-term and long-term negative impact on the economy and increases the difficulty of macro-control of monetary and fiscal policy.The research conclusion has important practical value.Not only has it provided a complete theoretical explanation for a series of economic phenomena,such as the illusion of enterprises,the failure of monetary and fiscal policies,and the rise in asset prices,under the background of the decline in China’s economic growth in recent years,but also how to improve the macro-control capabilities of monetary and fiscal policies.Optimizing the efficiency of economic resource allocation has good practical significance.