考虑媒体报道影响的结核病模型

A Tuberculosis Model with The Impact of Media Coverage

考虑媒体报道的影响建立新的结核病模型并分析了其动力学性态.首先计算了基本再生数,分析了平衡点存在的条件,进一步分析了平衡点的稳定性.最后用LHS/PRCC和灵敏度指标法分别对基本再生数和正平衡点进行了敏感性分析,得出各参数对疾病传播与流行的影响程度,同时模拟了媒体报道对结核病的影响.结果表明,疾病爆发后,媒体应该及时报道疫情信息,让公众意识到疫情的严重性且第一时间采取措施,减少与染病者的接触,防止疾病扩散.此外,还要改善医疗水平提高治愈率.

In this paper,we consider the influence of media coverage to establish a TB model and study its dynamic behaviors.Firstly,we calculate the basic reproduction number,analyze the conditions for the existence of the equilibria and further study the stability of them.Finally,we obtain the influence of each parameter on the spread and epidemic of the disease by using LHS/PRCC and sensitivity index methods to analyze the sensitivity of the basic reproduction number and the endemic equilibrium respectively.Meanwhile,we simulate the impact of media coverage on tuberculosis.The results show that the media should timely report the disease information after the outbreak of the disease,so that people realize the seriousness of the epidemic and take measures to reduce contact with infectious individuals,as well as preventing the spread of the disease.In addition,it is necessary to improve the level of medical treatment to raise the cure rate.