新冠疫情下东北三省财政经济运行态势及“十四五”财政收入预测

The Economic Performance in the Three Northeast Provinces Under the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Forecast of the Fiscal Revenue During the "14th Five-year Plan" Period

本文以新冠疫情下东北三省经济表现为切入点进行反思,认为即使不考虑新冠疫情影响,东北近几年经济发展水平也基本与2012年持平。在"十四五"时期开局之年,本文按照真实经济周期分析范式,创新性引入虚拟变量解决地方数据特性,预测了"十四五"时期东北三省的财政收入。结果显示,"十四五"时期东北三省财政收入年均增率在4%-6%之间。最后从"十四五"时期东北需要有新突破这一视角提出六个方面的财政政策建议。

By rethinking profoundly the economic performance of the three Northeast provinces under the COVID-19 pandemic, this paper finds that the economic development level is nearly the same as that of 2012,even without considering the impact of COVID-19. According to the Real business cycle analysis paradigm, this paper forecasts the fiscal revenue of the three Northeastern provinces during the "14 th Five-year Plan" period by creatively introducing dummy variables to eliminate the effect of local data fraud. The results show that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the average annual growth rate of fiscal revenue in the three Northeastern provinces is between 4% and 6%. Finally, from the perspective of the need for a new breakthrough in three Northeast provinces during the "14th Five-year Plan" period, six fiscal policy suggestions are put forward.