基于土地利用变化的安徽省陆地碳排放时空特征及效应

Spatio-temporal Characteristics and Effects of Terrestrial Carbon Emissions Based on Land Use Change in Anhui Province

土地利用变化是区域碳排放变化的主要驱动力,揭示土地利用变化对碳排放影响对于碳排放政策的制定具有指导意义。然而,经济快速发展区域中土地利用变化对碳排放影响研究仍有限。以安徽省为对象,基于2000—2020年的土地利用变化数据,从碳源/汇角度评估了安徽省净碳排放,分析了碳排放时空特点,从碳足迹、生态承载力和生态赤字3个方面阐明了安徽省碳排放效应。结果表明:(1)从2000—2020年,安徽省土地利用净碳排放表现为增加趋势,年均增加503.92万t,林地是碳排放的主要碳汇,但其碳汇总量年际变化不大,建设用地是碳排放增加的主要碳源,其年均增加511.37万t;(2)2000—2020年,碳源变化主要分布在安徽省中北部平原地区,碳汇变化主要分布于西南高山和丘陵地区,且安徽中北部地区是碳排放强度随时间变化的最大热点区;(3)由碳源/碳汇变化引起的碳排放效应中,生态承载力2000—2020年变化不大,但碳足迹和生态赤字表现为增加趋势,年均增加率分别为6.2%和8.7%。因此,安徽省中北部平原地区为碳减排重点控制区域,降低建设用地及增加林地面积可有效调节该地区碳排放效应。

Land use change is the main driving force of regional carbon emissions change,and revealing the impact of land use change on carbon emissions is instructive for the formulation of carbon emission policies.However,research on the impact of land use change on carbon emissions in areas with rapid economic development is still limited.Taking Anhui Province as objective,this study evaluated the net carbon emissions from the perspective of carbon source/sink based on the land use change from 2000 to 2020,analyzed the spatio-temporal characteristics of carbon emissions,and clarified the carbon emission effect from the aspects of carbon footprint,ecological carrying capacity and ecological deficit.The results showed that:(1)During 2000 to 2020,the net carbon emissions from land use in Anhui Province increased,with an average annual increase of 5039200 tons.Forest was the main carbon sink,but the amount of carbon sinks varied little from year to year.Construction land was the main carbon source,with an average annual increase of 5113700 tons.(2)During 2000 to 2020,the carbon source change area was mainly distributed in the central and northern plain area of Anhui Province,and the carbon sink change area was mainly distributed in the mountainous of southwest.Furthermore,the central and northern area of Anhui Province was the hottest areas of the carbon emission intensity changes.(3)Among the carbon emission effects caused by carbon source/sink changes,the ecological carrying capacity did not change much from 2000 to 2020,but the carbon footprint and ecological deficit increased,with an annual increase rate of 6.2%and 8.7%,respectively.Therefore,the central and northern plain area of Anhui province was the key control area for implementing carbon emission reduction.Meanwhile,reducing the construction land and increasing forest area could effectively adjust the carbon emission effect in study area.