2018年陕西省暴雨灾害气象服务效益评估

Evaluation of Meteorological Service Benefits of Rainstorm Disaster in Shaanxi Province in 2018

以陕西省2018年4次暴雨灾害气象服务的效益评估为例,基于气象、经济社会统计数据和定量化问卷调查数据,利用暴雨预报预警、公众气象服务、决策气象服务、行业气象服务和社会反馈等5个一级指标和10个二级指标表征气象服务水平,利用政府主导、部门联动及社会参与等3个一级指标和7个二级指标表征防御行为效益,从气象服务水平和防御行为两个维度对暴雨气象服务的防灾减灾综合水平进行了定量化评价。结果表明:2018年陕西暴雨灾害气象服务的服务水平和防御能力均在89分以上,公众在应对暴雨天气过程中人均节省损失费513元/人,4次暴雨灾害气象服务综合效益值为4.54亿元。综合评估指标较为客观地反映了气象服务在应对暴雨灾害中发挥的效益。

In this paper,the evaluated benefit of meteorological services for four rainstorm disasters in Shaanxi Province in 2018 is taken as an example.First,based on meteorological,economic and social statistics and quantitative questionnaire data,the level of meteorological services is characterized by using the five first-level indicators,including rainstorm forecast and early warning,public meteorological service,decision-making meteorological service,industry meteorological service and social feedback,and ten second-level indicators.Then,three first-level indicators,such as government-led,department-linkage,and seven second-level indicators,like movement and social participation,are used to characterize the benefits of defensive behavior.Finally,the comprehensive level of disaster prevention and mitigation of rainstorm meteorological service is quantitatively evaluated from both meteorological service level and defensive behavior.The results suggest that,in 2018,the service level and defense ability of meteorological services for rainstorm disasters in Shaanxi Province were above 89%,and the average per capita loss of the public in dealing with rainstorm weather was 513 CHY/person.The comprehensive benefit value of meteorological services for four rainstorm disasters was 454 million CHY.The comprehensive evaluation index objectively reflects the benefits of meteorological services in dealing with rainstorm disasters.