高速公路团雾分级预警研究

Study on Warning Level of Expressway Dense Fog

团雾和高速公路团雾的定义内涵外延尚未统一,没有标准定义。为有效预防高速公路团雾天气灾害,减少因高速公路团雾所造成的交通事故,有必要规范高速公路团雾分级预警标准。基于高速公路团雾的水平能见度和水平尺度等监测数据,借鉴部分学者专家的意见和建议,确定团雾和高速公路团雾的定义。分析高速公路团雾的特征、成因、时空分布及团雾的危害,统计分析高速公路团雾多发路段的交通事故数据资料与AWMS气象监测数据资料,确立高速公路团雾与车辆交通安全性关系。依据同车道前后车辆的相对停车视距和安全停车距离等分析,评估车辆在不同水平能见度数值条件下,行驶在团雾区域内外车辆发生交通事故的危险性大小,遵照相关法律、条例、标准及其规范,按水平能见度数值范围和覆盖路面长度划分高速公路团雾预警等级。研究结果表明:(1)高速公路团雾的水平尺度一般小于5 km,水平能见度通常小于200 m。(2)高速公路团雾具有多发性,时空分布不均,多发生于当日22时次日08时。(3)高速公路团雾的事故率高,造成的交通事故比较严重。(4)可以根据团雾特征和潜在危害性确定团雾和高速公路团雾定义的内涵外延,给出术语定义。(5)可根据高速公路团雾的水平能见度、交通事故、停车视距等分析,划分预警级别,规范监测和预报预警服务,减少交通事故的发生。

The definition,connotation and extension of local fog and expressway local dense fog have not been unified,and there is no standard definition.It is essential to normalize the classification of warning standard for expressway local dense fog to reduce traffic accidents caused by expressway local dense fog.Based on horizontal visibility and scale data of expressway local dense fog,this paper defines local fog and expressway local dense fog by referring to the advices of some scholars and experts and analyzes the characteristics,causes,spatial-temporal distribution and dangers of expressway local dense fog.In addition,the traffic accident data and AWMS meteorological monitoring data are analyzed statistically to establish the relationship between expressway local dense fog and vehicle traffic safety.Based on the analysis of the relative parking sight distance and safe parking distance of vehicles in the same lane,we also evaluate the risk of traffic accidents of vehicles driving in and out of the fog area under the different visibility levels.Finally,complying with relevant laws,regulations,standards and norms,the early warning grades of local dense fog in expressways are classified according to the numerical range of horizontal visibility and the length of covered roads.The research results show that:(1)The horizontal scale of expressway local dense fog is usually less than 5 km,and the horizontal visibility is usually less than 200 m.(2)Expressway local dense fog is multiple,with an uneven distribution in time and space,mostly formed from 22:00 to 08:00 the next day.(3)High accident rate and serious traffic accidents have been found in the expressway local dense fog zones.(4)Definition,connotation and extension of the local fog and expressway local dense fog can be determined according to their features and potential harmfulness.(5)Warning levels can be classified according to the analysis of horizontal visibility,traffic accident and parking sight distance of the expressway local dense fog,and the monitoring,forecasting and early warning services can be regulated.In turn,traffic accidents can be reduced effectively.