基于视窗分析的高速公路网规模与经济社会适应性实证研究

Empirical Analysis on Evaluation of Socioeconomic Adaptability of Expressway Network Scale Based on Window Analysis

为科学研判高速公路网系统与经济社会系统之间的关系,从效率视角厘清高速公路网规模与经济社会适应性的概念,从经济、社会、资源环境、综合运输等4个方面构建了科学系统的投入产出指标体系,基于输出导向的BCC视窗分析模型测算2010—2018年我国国内(不含港澳台)除西藏自治区外的省(自治区、直辖市)高速公路网规模效率。基于面板数据,从时空维度探究我国省际高速公路网规模效率的变动趋势和空间差异。研究结果显示:考察期内各省(自治区、直辖市)高速公路网规模效率的变动为小幅波动后趋于平稳,其中广东省实现了规模效率的稳定高位发展;不同地区平均效率差异显著,东部最高,中部和东北地区次之,西部最低。研究结果表明,我国高速公路网规模与经济社会适应程度较高,二者相互促进。

In order to scientifically distinguish the relationship between expressway network system and socioeconomic system,this paper clarified the concept of expressway network scale and socioeconomic adaptability from the perspective of efficiency,and constructed a scientific system of input-output index from four aspects including economy,society,resources and environment,as well as comprehensive transportation.Based on the output-oriented BCC window analysis model,this paper estimated the scale efficiencies of the expressway network of provinces and cities in inland China except Tibet Au-tonomous Region from 2010 to 2018.From the temporal and spatial dimensions,this paper explored the trends and the regional differences of the scale efficiencies of expressway network based on the panel data analysis.The results showed that change trends of the scale efficiencies of provinces,cities and autonomous regions were steady after slight fluctuations,and the scale efficiency of Guangdong province achieved a steady and high-position development.There were significant differences of aver-age efficiencies among different regions,among which the eastern region was the highest,followed by the central and northeast regions,and the western region was the lowest.It shows that the expressway network scale and economy society in China are highly adaptable and mutually promote.