基于模糊-熵权理论的铁路瓦斯隧道施工安全风险评估

Safety risk assessment for the railway gas tunnel construction based on the fuzzy-entropy method

针对含瓦斯地层隧道施工难度大、安全风险高等特点,提出采用熵值法和模糊理论相结合的方法进行铁路瓦斯隧道施工安全风险评估。为评估铁路瓦斯隧道施工安全风险,结合兴泉铁路某隧道工程,详细分析了隧道施工安全的影响因素,在此基础上构建了铁路瓦斯隧道施工安全风险评价体系,采用熵权理论确定了各层次风险影响因子权重,进而基于模糊数学理论构建了铁路瓦斯隧道施工安全风险评估模型,并对各影响因素逐层进行计算,得出铁路瓦斯隧道施工的事故可能性等级为3级,即可能出现风险。评估结果可靠,符合工程实际,可供类似工程参考。

The aim of this research is to assess the construction risk of the railway gas tunnels,whose construction has been on account of risks in a great variety.For instance,its construction involves lots of complicated influential factors in addition to the uncertainty and unexpected construction liabilities.It is just due to the above mentioned and lots of other unexpected reasons that the given paper intends to devote itself to make a detailed analysis in combination with a case project which involved lots of factors influencing the construction safety.And,then,based on the above said factors,we have managed to build up a safety risk assessment system for the railway gas tunnel construction procedures,with the quantitative range of gas tunnel construction risk assessment indexes carefully given.At the same time,we have also done a careful analysis of the assessment and scoring records for each factor of the safety risk assessment system of the said railway gas tunnel construction offered by the above said esteemed experts.Moreover,the weights of the factors at the various levels have also been reviewed and determined via the entropy method.Besides,the fuzzy mathematic model has also been taken to assess each factor bit-by-bit comprehensively,so as to gain the risk rating of the gas tunnel construction firmly.And,finally,we have managed to establish an assessment set to determine the risk rating spheres of the railway gas tunnel construction.The final conclusions have been made as follows:(1) The fuzzy entropy weight method is capable to solve the problem of the fuzzy assessment of the multiple influential factors through quantitative calculation,whereas the conclusive risk assessment of the railway gas tunnel project is definite,reasonable and qualified enough to guarantee the effective going on for the gas tunnel construction;And,(2),it is necessary for the successful construction safety to demand a strict and qualified supervision and control of key factors,such as the adjacent coal mines and the oil and gas fields,the lithological factors,the tunnel depth,the deadline limit of the coal mine tunnel construction into exploitation,the technical literacy of the operators,the geological exploitation factors and groundwater control,plus the coordination of other secondary affecting factors;And,(3) There exist potential risks of the railway gas tunnel construction accident,which has been assessed as level 3.And,so,the calculation results we have done prove to be in line with the actual project,with the similar projects taken for reference.And,therefore,the fuzzy-entropy method theory has been made adopted effectively and successfully to the risk assessment of the railway gas tunnel construction.