全球能源转型对中东政治的影响

The Impacts of Global Energy Transition on Middle East Politics

由于石油与当代中东之间的共生关系,全球能源转型必然影响中东国际地位,以及中东各国之间的权力结构。富国与穷国间的权力差距将扩大,阿联酋、卡塔尔等国家"小国大政治"的优势可能凸显。随着经济建设成为国家战略的首要任务,中东多个热点普遍降温,敌对国家之间的关系有所缓和,甚至出现多边经济合作的迹象。同时,相关国家之间也显现出恶性经济竞争的苗头。伴随着中东全球重要性的下降,美欧与中东渐行渐远,亚洲与中东相互依赖不断上升,东升西降的态势非常明显。中东各国应对能源转型的改革是一场同时间的赛跑,难度不小,前景不明,迄今为止迹象是积极、正面的。

Because of the symbiotic relations between oil and the Middle East, the global energy transition is bound to affect the international status of the Middle East and the power structure among the countries in the Middle East. The power gap between rich and poor countries will widen, and the"big politics of small states"in countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Qatar may become more prominent. As economic development has become the top priority of national strategy, many hot spots in the Middle East have cooled down, relations between rival countries have eased, and there are even signs of multilateral economic cooperation. The trend of the East rising and the West falling is obvious. The reform to tackle the energy transition in the Middle East is a positive race against time, but it is difficult and uncertain task.