时空格局分析方法及其实证应用——以山东省制造业为例

Analysis Methods of Spatio-temporal Patterns and Its Empirical Applications——A Case Study of Manufacturing Industry of Shandong Province

时空格局分析的主要目的是探寻地理事物和现象的格局特征及其发展演变规律,其关键在于空间格局分析与时间序列分析相融合。基于时空立方体的基本思想,提出"空间格局分析+空间统计+趋势分析+综合表达"的时空格局分析方法,该方法能够分析研究区全时间序列的空间格局类型及其出现频率和时空位置,揭示各研究单元空间格局发展演变规律。以山东省制造业为例进行实证研究,结果表明:山东省制造业产业结构指数和区位熵的空间冷点主要位于鲁西南地区,但其显著性逐渐减弱;山东省制造业产业结构指数、产业份额指数和区位熵的空间热点主要位于东部半岛地区;山东省制造业处于中、高发展水平的城市主要位于东部半岛地区和胶济铁路沿线区域,其他城市发展水平一直相对较低,但大多数呈上升趋势,具有一定后发优势。

The main purpose of spatio-temporal pattern analysis is to explore the characteristics and evolution rules of the spatial pattern of geographical objects and phenomena, and its key lies in the integration of spatial pattern analysis and time series analysis. Based on the basic idea of spatio-temporal cube, the spatio-temporal pattern analysis method of “spatial pattern analysis+spatial statistics+trend analysis+comprehensive expression” is proposed, which is used to analyze the spatial pattern types, occurrence frequency and temporal and spatial position of the whole time series, and to reveal the evolution law of spatial pattern of each research unit. The manufacturing industry of Shandong province is taken as an example for empirical study. The results are as follows. The cold spots of industry structure index and location entropy of manufacturing industry in Shandong are mainly located in the southwest of Shandong province, but their significance gradually weakens. The spatial hot spots of structure index, industry share index and location entropy of manufacturing industry in Shandong are mainly located in the eastern peninsula. The comprehensive development level of manufacturing industry of the cities in the eastern peninsula area and along the Jiaoji railway is medium or high, while the development level of other cities is relatively low. But it is on the rise, which has a certain advantage of late development.