提升中国CO_(2)排放绩效的最优FDI规模研究

Research on Optimal FDI Scale to Improve China’s CO_(2) Emissions Performance

经济全球化背景下,外商直接投资(FDI)对中国CO_(2)排放绩效的影响一直是学术界的研究热点。采用中国1983—2019年时间序列数据,构建了以FDI依存度为转换变量的平滑转换回归模型(STR模型),实证检验是否存在一个最优FDI规模,能显著提升以人均CO_(2)排放量和CO_(2)排放强度衡量的CO_(2)排放绩效。结果表明:FDI对中国CO_(2)排放绩效的影响效应呈现非线性,且确实存在最优FDI规模,占当年GDP的3.048%;当FDI依存度低于此值时,FDI依存度与人均CO_(2)排放量和CO_(2)排放强度显著负向相关,即提高FDI依存度可有效提升CO_(2)排放绩效;当FDI依存度高于此值时,FDI依存度与人均CO_(2)排放量和CO_(2)排放强度显著正向相关。目前中国FDI规模并未达到最优,因此,加大引资力度、积极吸收高水平FDI是改善中国CO_(2)排放绩效的有效途径。

In the context of economic globalization,the impact of FDI on China’s CO_(2) emissions performance is always a research hotspot in academia.This paper used China’s 1983-2019 time series data to establish a smooth transition regression model(STR model)with FDI dependence as the conversion variable.Whether there is an optimal FDI scale is empirically tested,which can significantly improve CO_(2) emissions performance measured by per capita CO_(2) emissions and CO_(2) emission intensity.The results show that:the effect of FDI on China’s CO_(2) emissions performance is non-linear,and there is indeed an optimal FDI scale,which accounts for 3.048%of GDP in that year;when the FDI dependence is lower than this value,the FDI dependence is negatively correlated with per capita CO_(2) emissions and CO_(2) emission intensity,that is,increasing FDI dependence can effectively improve CO_(2) emissions performance;when the FDI dependence is higher than this value,the FDI dependence is significantly positively correlated with per capita CO_(2) emissions and CO_(2) emissions intensity;the current FDI scale is not optimal,so increasing foreign investment and actively absorbing high levels of FDI are effective ways to improve China’s CO_(2) emissions performance.