长江、黄河流域高质量发展的测算与比较研究

Calculation and Comparison of High-Quality Development in Yangtze River and Yellow River Basins

构建高质量发展评价体系,以长江、黄河干流周边城市为测算单元,基于2007—2016年51个城市面板数据,测算并比较了两流域高质量发展指数及经济状况、社会福利、生态环境在指数中所占比重,并运用Tobit回归比较了两流域高质量发展驱动要素。结果表明,2007—2016年长江、黄河流域高质量发展指数总体涨幅分别为18.81%、13.70%,年均涨幅分别为1.73%、1.29%,总体均位于中质量发展阶段。经济状况占比均呈倒“U”型趋势,生态环境均呈下降趋势。社会福利在长江占比呈上升趋势,在黄河呈“U”型趋势,黄河流域经济与社会福利“脱钩”现象明显。Tobit回归结果显示,创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享均有助于提升流域内城市高质量发展。创新、开放对黄河流域影响较大,绿色、协调、共享对长江流域影响较大。

Build a high-quality development evaluation system,and taking the cities around the main stream of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River as the calculation unit.Based on the panel data of 51 cities from 2007 to 2016,the highquality development index of the Yangtze River and Yellow River basins,the proportion of economic status,social welfare and ecological environment in the high-quality development index were calculated and compared.This study used Tobit regression to identify and compare the driving factors of high-quality development in these two basins.The results showed that the overall growth rates of the high-quality development index in the Yangtze River and Yellow River basins were 18.81%and 13.70%respectively,with an average annual increase of 1.73%and 1.29%from 2007 to 2016,which were in the medium quality development stage.The proportion of economic status in the high-quality development of the two basins showed an inverted U-shaped trend,while the ecological environment showed a downward trend.The proportion of social welfare in the Yangtze River basin was raised,and the Yellow River basin was adopted a U-shaped trend.The“decoupling”phenomenon between economy and social welfare in the Yellow River Basin was obvious.Tobit regression results showed that innovation,coordination,green,opening and sharing contributed to the improvement of high-quality development of cities in the basins.Innovation and opening were relatively high affected on the Yellow River basin,while green,coordination and sharing were relatively high affected on the Yangtze River basin.