黄河流域城市群综合承载力评价及时空分异演进

Comprehensive Carrying Capacity Evaluation and Spatiotemporal Differentiation Evolution of Urban Agglomeration in the Yellow River Basin

选取2008—2018年黄河流域七大城市群的面板数据,通过熵权法、Moran系数、核密度估计建立城市群综合承载力评价指标体系,并从时间和空间的维度对黄河流域城市群的综合承载力状况进行时空分异演进分析。研究结论如下:黄河流域城市群综合承载力呈现显著空间自相关,城市之间承载力发展不均衡,黄河流域城市群综合承载力现出向中高水平的路径依赖发展趋势。研究认为,提升黄河流域城市群的综合承载力应积极探索富有地域特色的发展战略,以中心城市为核心加强城市群内各城市协同发展,创新机制促进高质量发展。

The panel data of seven urban agglomerations in the Yellow River Basin from 2008 to 2018 were selected to establish the evaluation index system of comprehensive carrying capacity of urban agglomerations through entropy weight method,Moran coefficient and kernel density estimation.Moreover,spatial-temporal differentiation evolution analysis was conducted on the comprehensive carrying capacity of urban agglomerations in the Yellow River Basin from the dimensions of time and space.The results show that the comprehensive carrying capacity of city clusters in the Yellow River basin presents polarization or multilevel differentiation,showing significant spatial autocorrelation.The comprehensive carrying capacity of urban agglomeration in the Yellow River Basin has a certain path dependence state,and the trend is developing towards medium and high level.This paper argues that to improve the comprehensive carrying capacity of urban agglomeration in the Yellow River Basin,it is necessary to actively explore the development strategy with regional characteristics,strengthen the coordinated development of cities in the urban agglomeration with central cities as the core,and innovate mechanism to promote high-quality development.