中国森林损失的时空特征及其与经济增长的EKC关系检验

Spatiotemporal Distribution Characteristics of Forest Loss and EKC Test of Its Relationship with Economic Growth

根据Hansen数据集对2001—2018年间中国的森林损失进行了量化和可视化,并基于森林损失角度分别为全国和东、中、西三个区域建立了森林EKC曲线模型,最终将所得结论与现有其他角度的森林EKC研究结论对比。结果表明:(1)研究期中国森林损失率表现出先增再减再增的趋势,其区域变动特征表现为随时间推移损失率较高的区域由各区域普遍存在向东南沿海区域聚集;(2)全国及各区域森林损失率随经济增长的变化具有明显差异,其中全国和西部地区森林损失率随经济增长单调递减,东部地区森林损失率随经济增长单调递增,中部地区森林损失率随经济增长呈先增后减的倒“U”型曲线关系。(3)森林损失角度与森林资源净变化角度下的森林EKC曲线无论是在形状上还是拐点发生时间上均具有明显的差异。

Firstly,the forest loss rate of China from 2001 to 2018 was quantified and visualized according to Hansen data set.Secondly,the Environmental Kuznets curve models are established for the whole country and each region,and the conclusions are compared with the existing research results from other perspectives.The results showed that:(1)China’s forest loss rate has shown a trend of first increasing,then decreasing and then increasing,and its regional variation characteristics showed that the areas with higher loss rates over time gathered from all regions to the southeast coastal area.(2)There are obvious differences in the change of forest loss rate with economic growth in China and different regions.The forest loss rate of the whole country and the western region decreases monotonously with the economic growth,the forest loss rate in the eastern region increases monotonously with the economic growth,and the forest loss rate in the central region shows an inverted“U”curve relationship with the economic growth.(3)The EKC curves of forest under the angle of forest loss and net change of forest resources are obviously different in shape and inflection time.