粤港澳大湾区人口、经济与环境协同的影响机制研究

The Mechanism of Population,Economy and Environment Synergy in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

人口、经济与环境协同是当今城市群发展的主要途径和重要特征,无论是制度体系的顶层设计,还是政策工具的准备,都需要准确把握人口、经济与环境系统协同的影响机制。基于此,论文以2000—2019年粤港澳大湾区“9+2”城市的数据为样本,构建以创新体系、差异性和人口子系统、经济子系统、环境子系统构成的系统协同影响机制模型。研究发现,创新体系对系统协同具有显著的促进作用,接近人口子系统和环境子系统的效应强度;经济子系统不仅直接作用于整个大湾区的系统协同,而且也是其他因素产生协同作用的中介,经济子系统在粤港澳大湾区的发展过程将起到决定性作用,经济的高质量发展既是目的也是手段;人口子系统有其自身的惯性,调控的空间相对有限,而环境子系统有一定的滞后性,相关政策效应需要较长时间才能显现出来,这就需要有长期稳定的政策支持体系。

Population,economy and environment synergy are the main ways and important characteristics of urban cluster development,whether it is the top design of the institution system or the preparation of policy tools,we need to accurately grasp the influence mechanism of the synergy of population,economic and environmental system.Based on this,this paper builds a model of the system synergic mechanism consisting of innovation system,differentials and population,economic and environmental subsystem based on the data of the“9+2”cities in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA)from 2000 to 2019.It is found that the innovation system has a significant effect on system synergy,which is close to the effect strength of population subsystem and environmental subsystem.The economic subsystem not only influences directly on the system synergy of GBA,but also acts as an intermediary for other factors to produce synergy,and the economic subsystem will play a decisive role in the development process of GBA.Population subsystem has its own inertia,the space for regulation is relatively limited,and the environmental subsystem has a certain lag effect and its relevant policy effects need a long time to appear,which requires a long-term stable policy support system.