时空演化视角下我国西部地区人口-资源-环境-经济协调发展研究

Research on the Coordinated Development of Population-Resources-Environment-Economy in Western China from the Perspective of Space-Time Evolution

通过构建西部地区人口—资源—环境—经济四系统评价指标体系,基于熵权法、耦合协调度模型测算2009—2019年我国西部地区子系统发展指数及系统耦合协调度,借助探索性空间数据分析模型与ArcGIS软件从时间和空间两个维度探讨协调度情况。研究发现:我国西部地区人口、环境与经济发展指数稳定提升,资源发展指数有较大波动。耦合协调水平不断优化,从2009年部分地区濒临失调衰退,到2019年多数地区达到初级与中级耦合协调水平,经济发展水平滞后于其他子系统发展是制约其协调度提升的主要因素。全局Moran’s I体现出西部地区耦合协调度存在正向的空间相关性,具有“俱乐部趋同”特征,高—高集聚主要位于陕西、四川与云南一带,低—低集聚位于甘肃、宁夏、新疆和青海地区。基于上述结论,提出相应的对策建议。

This paper constructs the evaluation index system of the four systems of population,resources,environment and economy in the western region,calculates the subsystem development index and system coupling coordination scheduling in the western region of China from 2009 to 2019 based on entropy weight method and coupling coordination degree model,and discusses the coordination degree from two dimensions of time and space by using exploratory spatial data analysis model and ArcGIS software.The results show that:The index of population,environment and economic development in the western region of China has increased steadily,and the index of resources development has a large fluctuation.The coupling coordination level is constantly optimized.From 2009,some regions are on the verge of maladjustment and recession,to 2019,most regions reach the primary and intermediate coupling coordination level,and the economic development level lags behind the development of other subsystems,which is the main factor restricting the improvement of the coordination scheduling.The global Moran’s I shows that there is a positive spatial correlation in the coupling coordination degree of the western region,with the characteristics of“club convergence”.The high-high agglomeration is mainly located in Shaanxi,Sichuan and Yunnan,and the low low agglomeration is located in Gansu,Ningxia,Xinjiang and Qinghai.Based on the above conclusions,the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.