国家高效生态经济战略区“垃圾围城”引致的社会风险评估

Social Risk Assessment of“Garbage Siege”in the National High-Efficiency Ecological Economic Strategic Zone

选取黄河三角洲国家高效生态经济战略区为研究区,利用SBM模型测度“垃圾围城”引致的社会风险水平,并引入探索性空间数据分析法检验社会风险水平的空间分异特征。研究表明:黄河三角洲“垃圾围城”引致的社会风险水平总体上呈倒“U”型变化;地区之间的社会风险水平存在“收敛”特性,而在社会风险水平的层次聚类结果中,不同类型的聚类区域社会风险水平的驱动诱因存在差异性;空间尺度下,地区间社会风险水平的空间相关性由负转正,区域失衡性明显,冷热点变化趋势揭示出“垃圾围城”引致的社会风险水平具有“渤海湾极化”现象,虽然冷点与次冷点总体数量相对稳定,但呈从冷点向次冷点转变的趋势,形成了由渤海湾向内陆梯级递减的空间辐射结构。

The Yellow River Delta of National High-Efficiency Ecological Economic Strategic Zone was selected as the research area,and the level of social risk caused by“Garbage Siege”was evaluated based on SBM model,and the spatial differentiation characteristics of social risk levels were analyzed by the exploratory spatial data analysis method.Results showed that,the level of social risk caused by the“Garbage Siege”in the Yellow River Delta showed an inverted“U”shape.The social risk level between regions had a certain degree of“convergence”characteristics,and in the hierarchical clustering results of the social risk level,different types of clustering regions had different driving factors for social risk levels.In the perspective of spatial scale,the spatial correlation of social risk levels between regions had changed from negative to positive,and the regional imbalance was more obvious.The changing trend of cold and hot spots showed that the level of social risk caused by“Garbage Siege”had a phenomenon of“Bohai Bay polarization”.Although the number of cold spots and sub-cold spots was relatively stable,there was a trend of transition from cold spots to sub-cold spots,and formed a space radiation structure that gradually decreased from Bohai Bay to inland.