中国技术进步方向:兼顾人力资本变动的测算

The Direction of Technological Progress in China:Considering Changes of Human Capital

本文兼顾劳动投入在质量维度上的变动,对技术进步方向进行再估算,并探讨技术进步在人力资本和物质资本之间的偏向与要素丰裕度以及劳动收入份额变动的关联。测算结果表明,人力资本与实物资本的替代弹性呈现总互补关系,技术进步方向在实物资本和人力资本之间偏向于实物资本,且技术进步方向与要素丰裕度变动的关联更加符合技术引致机制下的理论预期。技术进步方向呈现波动—资本偏向—波动三阶段特征趋势,与劳动收入份额的高位波动—下降—低位徘徊的变动趋势吻合。本文认为,在中国经济增长进入新阶段、劳动力市场要素禀赋特征经历转型节点的背景下,技术进步测算等相关研究兼顾劳动投入在质量维度上的变动具有一定的必要性和重要性。

This paper considers the changes of labor input in quality dimension,reestimates the direction of technological progress in China.The results show that the elasticity of substitution between human capital and capital is gross complements,the direction of technological progress is capital biased,and the correlation between the direction of technological progress and the change of factor abundance is more in line with the theoretical expectation.The trend of technological progress is characterized by three stages of fluctuation-capital biased-fluctuation,which is consistent with the trend of labor income share of high fluctuation-decline-low hovering.This paper argues that under the background of economic growth entering a new stage and the labor market factor endowment characteristics going through a transition node in China,it is necessary and important to consider the changes of labor input in the quality dimension in relevant studies.