城市生态福利绩效的动态演进及其影响因子探析——以黄河流域地级及以上城市为例

Dynamic evolution and driving mechanism of ecological well-being Performance of cities in the Yellow River Basin

生态福利绩效是助推黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展战略的重要议题。基于随机前沿分析模型,综合运用变异系数、马尔科夫链以及标准差椭圆的方法探讨了黄河流域57个城市2008—2017年生态福利绩效的动态演进规律,并基于"五大发展理念"的视角,借助地理探测器工具揭示了其内在驱动机制。研究发现:黄河流域地级市的生态福利绩效总体呈下降态势,市域和省域层面的发展呈现出非均衡性、阶段性的特征。生态福利绩效低水平及高水平类型的演变具有稳定的锁定效应,而中低水平和中高水平类型表现出向相邻类型转移的倾向;其重心总体向东南方向移动,"东北—西南"走向主导着空间分异格局。"五大发展理念"中,开放、共享、协调对生态福利绩效的解释力高于绿色与创新,城市化水平、对外开放程度和产业结构的影响系数位居前三;要素间的交互作用具有双因子增强与非线性增强效应,且共享是极佳的交互对象,城市化率是最优的交互因子。

Ecological well-being performance is an important issue that promotes ecological protection and high-quality development strategies in the Yellow River Basin. This paper,based on the improved stochastic frontier analysis model,uses the method of variation coefficient, Markov chain and standard deviation ellipse to discuss the dynamic evolution of the ecological well-being of 57 cities from 2008 to 2017,besides,the driving effect is illustrated by the tool of geographical detector from the perspective of the five development concepts,the study finds that: The overall ecological well-being performance of 57 cities in the Yellow River Basin shows a downward trend,and the development at the municipal and provincial levels has unbalanced and periodic characteristics. The evolution of low-level and high-level types of ecological well-being performance takes on a stable locking effect,while the relatively low-level and high-level type have the tendency to shift to the adjacent types. The center of gravity generally moves to the northeast,and east-west direction dominates the spatial distribution pattern. The explanatory of open,sharing,and coordination on ecological well-being performance is higher than that of green and innovation;urbanization level, openness and industrial structure have highly influential coefficient. As to the interactions,there are significant two-factor enhancement effects and nonlinear enhancement effects among the elements,and sharing is an excellent interaction object,urbanization rate is the optimal interaction factor.