新发展格局下我国沿海城市群高质量发展测度及空间分异

High-quality Development Measures and Spatial Differentiation of China’s Coastal Urban Agglomeration Under the New Development Pattern

着力推动我国沿海城市群的高质量发展对现阶段构建新发展格局、推动我国区域经济高质量发展意义深远。基于我国沿海四大城市群36个代表性城市的宏观统计数据,从高质量发展的量与质关系出发构建新发展格局下我国沿海城市高质量发展测度指标体系。结合PCA-EM测度模型,对京津冀城市群、山东半岛城市群、长三角城市群和珠三角城市群的高质量发展水平展开测度,并采用变异系数法和CVM测算法研究了四大城市群内部各城市间高质量发展水平的差异程度,同时采用地理探测器探测影响四大城市群高质量发展空间分异的各因子的解释力。研究表明,沿海四大城市群中,长三角城市群高质量发展的得分最高,京津冀城市群内部高质量发展水平的差异程度最大;整体上,绿色发展维度的平均得分最高,创新发展维度的平均得分最低;四大城市群之间及其内部各城市间在六个维度上的表现差距较大,一些城市在各维度上的发展不平衡性显著;经济发展因子的驱动作用最强,协调发展因子的作用力最小且不显著,任意两个因子的交互作用力均大于各单一因子的作用力。沿海各城市群应从自身高质量发展的特征出发,继续以创新发展战略为引领,提高创新成果的产出与质量;应结合短期和长远发展目标制定阶段性的规划方案,实现区域内部各城市间资源的优化配置,实现经济发展质的稳步提升。

Promoting the high-quality development of China’s coastal urban agglomeration is of far-reaching significance for building a new development pattern and promoting the high-quality development of China’s regional economy at present stage.Based on the macro statistical data of 36 representative cities in China’s four major coastal urban agglomerations,starting from the“quantity”and“quality”relationship of high-quality development,the authors construct the high-quality development measurement index system of China’s coastal cities.Combined with PCA-EM measurement model,the authors evaluate the high-quality development level of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration,Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration,Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration and Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration.The variation coefficient method and the new CVM method are used to measure the different degree of high-quality development in the four coastal urban agglomerations,and the geographical detector is used to detect and analyze the driving force of the driving factors.The results show that:first,among all the four urban agglomerations,the score of high-quality development of Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is the highest,and the difference of high-quality development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is the largest;second,the average score of the four coastal urban agglomerations in the green development dimension is the highest,while the average score of the innovation development dimension is the lowest;third,there is a large gap in the performance of the four urban agglomerations and the cities within them in the six dimensions,and the imbalance of the development of some cities in each dimension is significant;and fourth,the driving force of economic development factor is the strongest,while the force of coordinated development factor is the smallest and not significant,and the interaction force between any two factors is greater than the force of any single factor.Coastal urban agglomerations should,with the consider of their own characteristics of high quality development,continue to take the innovative development strategy as the guide,and improve the output and quality of innovative achievements;they should also formulate the phased planning schemes in combination with short-term objectives and long-term development to realize the optimal allocation of resources among cities within the region,so as to realize the steady improvement of the“quality”of economic development.