人口老龄化与江苏省农村居民收入

Population aging and income of rural residents in Jiangsu province

从理论角度分析了人口老龄化对农村居民不同来源收入及结构的影响机制,并利用2009—2019年江苏省13个地级市的面板数据进行了实证检验。研究发现,人口老龄化对江苏省农村居民的收入结构产生了显著影响。老龄化率的上升抑制了农村居民工资性收入、经营性收入、财产性收入的取得,伴随着转移性收入的增加;在加入地区经济发展水平这一调节变量后,发现经济增长有助于缓解老龄化对农村居民收入产生的负面影响;将江苏省进一步划分为苏南、苏中、苏北3个地区,发现由于地区间经济发展水平的差异,人口老龄化对农村居民收入的影响程度也存在区域差异,但整体上人口老龄化会对农村居民收入造成消极影响。研究为促进人口老龄化背景下的农村地区居民收入增长及共同富裕目标的实现提供了政策启示。

This study theoretically analyzed the impact mechanism of rural population aging on income and structure from different sources,and made an empirical test by using the panel data of 13 prefecture level cities in Jiangsu province from 2009 to 2019.The study found that the population aging had an impact on the income structure of rural residents in Jiangsu province.The rise of the aging rate inhibited the acquisition of wage income,operating income and property income of rural residents,but it was accompanied by the increase of transfer income;After adding the adjustment variable of regional economic development level,it was found that economic growth helped to alleviate the negative impact of aging on rural residents’income;Jiangsu province was further divided into three re⁃gions:Southern Jiangsu,Central Jiangsu and Northern Jiangsu.It was found that due to the differences in regional economic develop⁃ment,there were regional differences in the impact of aging on the income of rural residents,but it would have a negative impact on the income of farmers as a whole.The research provides policy enlightenment for promoting the growth of regional farmers’income and realizing the goal of common prosperity under the background of population aging.