新时期京津冀城市群经济高质量发展分析

Analysis on High Quality Economic Development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration in the New Era

通过构建城市群经济高质量发展水平指数,采用核密度估计与空间分析方法对京津冀城市群经济高质量发展水平进行分析。结果表明:2001—2017年京津冀城市群经济高质量发展水平稳定上升,年均增幅达2.57%;京津冀城市群经济高质量发展水平时空动态特征明显,在时间上,京津冀城市群内部城市经济高质量发展水平差异较大,形成了高、中、低3种类型,在空间上,逐渐形成了以北京为中心的极化空间格局;京津冀城市群经济高质量发展水平不同维度指数的作用异质性显著,在8个维度中经济发展动力指数、绿色发展指数、经济发展条件指数、新型产业结构指数、经济发展共享性指数的贡献度均呈现出波动上升趋势,而经济发展协调性指数的贡献度出现下降,经济增长水平及持续性指数和经济发展开放性指数的贡献度则一直维持在低水平状态。

This paper analyzes the economic development level of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration by means of nuclear density estimation and spatial analysis. The results show that:( 1) from 2001 to 2017,the level of high-quality economic development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration rose steadily,with an average annual growth rate of 2. 57%.( 2) The high quality economic development level of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration has obvious spatio-temporal dynamic characteristics. In terms of the time,there are great differences in the level of high-quality urban economic development within the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration,forming three types: high,medium and low. In space,the polarization space pattern with Beijing as the center has been gradually formed.( 3) The effect of different dimension indexes on the high-quality economic development level of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is heterogeneous. Eight dimensions of economic development dynamics’ index,green development’s index,economic development conditions’ index,new industrial structure’s index,economic development sharing’s index fluctuated upward trend,while the economic development coordination’s index decline in the contribution to the economic development,the economic growth level and sustainability’s index and economic development openness’ index contribution has been to maintain low status.