中国城镇化与基本公共服务时空交互耦合关系及其驱动力分析

Analysis of the Coupling Relationship between China′s Urbanization and Basic Public Services in Time and Space and Its Driving Forces

基本公共服务是实现城镇化高质量发展的关键支撑。该文通过构建评价指标体系,运用熵值法、耦合协调模型、面板数据模型对2005-2018年我国285个地级以上城市的城镇化与基本公共服务协调发展的时空演变规律及驱动力进行分析。结果表明:1)城镇化与基本公共服务协调发展水平总体呈波动上升趋势,二者协调度指数均值由0.296升至0.319,年均增长率为0.577%。2005-2010年、2011-2014年、2015-2018年二者协调度分别表现为“倒V形”“V形”“N形”演变趋势,3个阶段协调度高低值差异进一步收敛,城镇化与基本公共服务协调发展的韧性增强。2)各地市的协调度极差由0.557降至0.523,全国尺度的空间均衡趋势明显,高水平协调向西、向南转移;东部三大城市群中心城市溢出效应明显,边缘城市及中、西部主要城市群中心城市表现为虹吸效应。3)城镇化与基本公共服务的交互响应均呈现“正向—负向—正向—稳定”的特征,与“N形”演变规律吻合;经济实力、政策支持、城市层级共同作用于城镇化与基本公共服务的协调发展。

Basic public services are the key support for achieving high-quality urbanization development.By constructing an evaluation index system,this paper analyzed the temporal and spatial evolution laws and driving forces of the coordinated development of urbanization and basic public services in 285 cities at and above the prefecture level in China from 2005 to 2018 by using entropy method,coupling coordination model and panel data model.The results show that:1)The overall level of coordinated development of urbanization and basic public services showed a fluctuating upward trend,and the average value of the coordination degree increased from 0.296 to 0.319,with an average annual growth rate of 0.577%.In 2005-2010,2011-2014 and 2015-2018,the coordination degree showed the evolution trend of inverted-V shape,V shape and N shape,respectively.The toughness of the coordinated development of urbanization and basic public services increased and the difference between high and low values converged in the three stages.2)The range of coordination degree of various cities decreased from 0.557 to 0.523 in 2005-2018.The trend of spatial equilibrium at the national-scale was obvious,and the high-level coordination shifted to the Western China and Southern China.The spillover effect of the central cities of the three major urban agglomerations in the Eastern China was obvious,the marginal cities and the central cities of the major urban agglomerations in the Central and Western China showed siphon effect.3)The interactive responses between urbanization and basic public services presented the characteristics of"positive-negative-positive-stability",which was consistent with the evolution law of N shape.Economic strength,policy support and urban level work together on the coordinated development of urbanization and basic public services.