供给侧结构性改革对房地产行业的“去库存”效应研究

Research on "destocking" effect of supply-side structural reform on real estate industry

采用基于倾向得分匹配法的双重差分模型,实证检验供给侧结构性改革对房地产行业库存调整和企业绩效的影响。结果表明,供给侧结构性改革整体实现了房地产企业去库存和提升绩效的政策目标,但到第三年效果就已不再显著。进一步研究发现,供给侧结构性改革的政策效果表现出显著的差异化特征,国有企业在改革前两年的去库存效果并不显著,同时其政策效果明显不如非国有企业;高杠杆企业仅在改革首年取得了显著的去库存效果,而绩效提升效果不显著。因此,继续深化供给侧结构性改革已经刻不容缓。首先,要从最大效率地实现资源要素的优化配置出发,保证中国经济的稳定增长;其次,进一步深化改革的政策制定,明确中央政府和地方政府的角色定位;最后,未来房地产行业的发展方向是满足居民刚需改善型住宅需求,必须保证房地产业回归解决居民住房问题的本位。

This paper, by adopting the difference-in-difference model based on the propensity score matching method, empirically analyzes the impact of supply-side structural reform on the inventory adjustment behavior and enterprise performance of real estate industry. The results show that the supply-side structural reform has achieved the policy objectives of "destocking" and improving performance of real estate enterprises as a whole, but by the third year of reform, the policy effect is no longer significant. Further research finds that the policy effects of supply-side structural reform show significant differences, the destocking effect of state-owned enterprises is not significant in the first two years of reform, while the policy effect of state-owned enterprises is obviously inferior to that of non-state-owned enterprises, and that only in the first year of reform, the highly leveraged enterprises have achieved significant destocking effect,while the performance improvement effect is not significant. Therefore, it is urgent to continue to deepen the supply-side structural reform. Firstly, we should start to the utmost effect with realizing the optimal allocation of resource elements to ensure the steady increase of China’s economy. Secondly, we should further deepen the policy making of reform and clarify the role orientation for the central government as well as local governments. Thirdly, as the future development of real estate industry directs at satisfying the residents’ rigid needs for improving-type accommodation, we must guarantee that real estate industry should return to its standard position of solving the housing problem for the residents.