基于ISM和BN的危险品仓储系统安全风险评估

Safety risk assessment of dangerous goods storage system based on ISM and Bayesian network

为预防危险品仓储事故,有必要对危险品仓储系统做安全风险评估。为降低危险品仓储系统安全风险评估的随机性和不确定性,将解释结构模型(ISM)和贝叶斯网络(BN)方法用于安全风险定量评估。基于扎根理论进行危险品仓储系统安全风险因素识别,在此基础上得到危险品仓储系统安全风险因素体系。基于ISM模型建立危险品仓储系统安全风险贝叶斯网络模型。在此基础上应用模糊集理论构建危险品仓储系统安全风险评估模型。对所建立的危险品仓储系统安全风险评估模型进行案例应用,证明了模型的合理有效性。

In order to prevent dangerous goods storage accidents,it is necessary to evaluate the safety risk of dangerous goods storage system.In order to reduce the randomness and uncertainty of safety risk assessment of dangerous goods storage system,ISM model and Bayesian network(BN) method were used for quantitative safety risk assessment.Based on grounded theory,the safety risk factors of dangerous goods storage system are identified,and the safety risk factors system of dangerous goods storage system is obtained.Based on ISM model,the Bayesian network model of dangerous goods storage system security risk was established.Using fuzzy set theory,the safety risk assessment model of dangerous goods storage system was constructed.The case application of the safety risk assessment model of dangerous goods storage system proves that the model was reasonable and effective.